Ethiopia army is again locked up in a senseless war as Abiy Ahmed continues to use it as cannon fodder
Mengistu had several chances to resolve Ethiopia's political crisis, but he chose himself and led to state collapse in May 1991. Ethiopia lost sea access and became two countries, history turned upside down. Narrow far-right socialist militants took control of an ancient nation.
In a recent revelation, President Mengistu Hailemariam's chief economist and acting prime minister Fasika Sidelil said the military dictator had no ambition of giving up his power and flee in May 1991. After 16 years of bloodshed, he wanted to continue the recruitments and the military campaign.
Fasika says Mengistu asked him a budget for one million troops the leader was planning to recruit in 1991. The prime minister showed him the amount of money the country had which would not cover the wages of the civil servants and let alone recruit new troops and arm them. The soviets were already backing down.
Mengistu cried like a baby. He knew it was all over and fled the country. The far-right socialist rebels took state power. One of the world's top militaries with over 500,000 troops was 'defeated' by poorly trained and armed EPLF and TPLF rebels. The troops were disbanded and forced to be homeless and beggars on the streets of Addis Ababa, a horrific chapter in the history of Ethiopia.
The same is happening in Ethiopia today. In the summer of 2021, a few days after the Ethiopian army was slaughtered and forced to evacuate the rebel Tigray region, Abiy lied to the parliament saying he could continue the fight had he wanted to, by raising "one million" troops from the country's eight ethnic enclaves. But he lied he chose to give peace a chance and reinstated the TPLF rebels to power in the region.
The army defeated TPLF in three weeks and removed them from power in Tigray, but Abiy Ahmed's ruling party and its cadre structure not only ruined the victory but was working behind the national army helping TPLF regroup. The army's sacrifice was lost in vain because of Abiy Ahmed.
Official numbers show at least 400,000 government troops have been killed just in Tigray, they decisively crushed TPLF in the fall of 2022 but Abiy and his ruling party have allowed TPLF to remain intact and potentially restart a fourth invasion of Ethiopia. For that, Abiy is cashing on US money and media backing.
Three armies in five years
The Ethiopian army had to be reconstructed at least three times in the last five years under Abiy Ahmed. It has been used as cannon fodder to substitute for Abiy Ahmed's political failure.
It's been deployed to every part of the country and paid heavy price in conflicts fabricated by Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Gospelers who have no value for human lives.
It campaigned against the Oromo militant group OLF for five years only for the OLF to grow more powerful than it has ever been in the group's half a century of history. Why? Abiy Ahmed's cadres are themselves OLF. Abiy knows this very well. He only fights OLF not to reach his throne, he never wants to completely defeat them. The army is sent to Oromia just to slip in Abiy Ahmed's trap and die. Some suggest he might even make a deal with OLF against a common enemy, the Amharas and Gurages.
Abiy's rule survives only in balancing violence in all parts of the country, so everybody is busy and does not notice him.
Civil War in Amhara
The Amhara who gave the young leader the benefit of the doubt as the country walked through a horrific bloody-five-years period are finally done. They have rebelled. What started as a peaceful protest against Abiy Ahmed's lack of care for the millions of "Amharas" who were displaced from Oromia region and crowded the Amhara region, has now turned to be a well-organized military resistance that swept over 75% of the region.
Abiy Ahmed's crony Temesgen Tiruneh, who has the title of intelligence chief but never foiled terrorist attacks that killed thousands of civilians since he assumed the position has admitted that the Fano rebels have controlled 75% of the region, the only part of the region that PP government is in control is southern Wollo zone.
It's over four months now since the army was deployed to the Amhara to fight the rebels. In fourth months, the Fonos only got more powerful and swept major towns like Lalibela, Gondar, parts of the regional capital Bahir Dar and the entire rural Amhara. The air space is fully closed, no flights allowed.
Shoa-Robit which is a three hours' drive from the capital Addis Ababa is also under the rebels. If the rebels had heavy weaponry, they might have threatened Addis Ababa but so far Addis Ababa seems to be safe.
Government supporters have already admitted the Ethiopian army has paid unnecessary causalities and heavy losses especially in the Gondar and Shoa-Robit battles. It's very sad the army kept being used as cannon fodder.
Abiy Ahmed still brags about the army's standing and its new heavy weaponry. Nothing saved the army that was built under Mengistu Hailemariam. It even had much superior military leadership but because the political leadership was bad, that huge army ended up losing to the far-right socialist rebels in 1991.
War is an extension of politics. If the politics is bad, the war won't be any different as we have already seen in the battles, they army was deployed to.
The Amhara region is ten times larger in terms of population and territory. There are over ten million "Amharas" in other parts of Ethiopia. At least 50 million Ethiopians are either married or somehow directly related with Amhara. A full Amhara mobilization is not only an end to Abiy but also to the Ethiopian state.
Abiy Ahmed is determined to hold on to his seat in Addis Ababa like the Syrian leader who lost everything except the capital at some point in the Syrian civil war.
Abiy is planning to use the Shoa-Oromo counties that sit between Addis Ababa and the Amhara region as human-shields. His cronies are already painting this as an Amhara-Oromo civil war.
As the Tigray war was not an Amhara/Oromo-Tigray civil war but Abiy vs TPLF, this war is also Fano army vs Abiy Ahmed. It has nothing to do with the poor people of Oromo and Amhara on the ground. Abiy needs to wake up and solve it peacefully.