Ethiopia government extends martial law for a third time as war with Fano rebels reaches its first anniversary.
In June last year, forces loyal to Ethiopia's ruler Abiy Ahmed stormed a monastery in Debre Elijah West Gojjam in what was called an attempt to capture Eskinder Nega, journalist turned civil Rights warrior. Several monks were massacred but no Eskinder Nega or any other target Abiy was hoping to capture was seen at the site. That event started the official start of a war between Abiy Ahmed forces and Amhara Fano groups six months after another horrific war ended with TPLF rebels in Tigray.
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| Eskinder Nega with US senator Marco Rubio in 2019 |
Abiy Ahmed declared martial law as the entire Amhara provinces of Gojjam, Gondar, Wollo and Shoa were run over by the rebels in July. His forces could not defeat the rebels despite the government forces having over half a million fighters, modern heavy weaponry including combat drones.
Six months later, the decree was extended by four months as Abiy forces failed to clear the rebels from 80% of the Amhara region which covers over 25 million population. The rebels were only pushed out of urban areas. That four-month extension ended this week and no sign of Abiy Ahmed winning this war by force rather it was a blessing in disguise for Fano rebels.
A blessing in disguise
Before this official war was opened by Abiy, Fano forces were unknown figures in Ethiopian politics. Fano was simply a communal name given to young volunteers who fought fascist Italy in WWII. Nobody knew there was an organized group by the name Fano. Now a year later, Fano forces have grown to be a major player in Ethiopian politics.
In the last year, the rebels formed five major commands across the five Amhara provinces led by experienced political and military commanders. These commands oversight tens of thousands of fighters in each province.
They upgraded their ranks and weapon depos. They have since formed mechanized divisions, commando units, and surveillance institutions. They also added administrative experience to their resume as over 25 million population has been ruled by them for the last one entire year. Talks of forming one central Amhara Fano command are also in the air.
Martial law continues
For Abiy, this is a life and death situation. He asserted that he would fight until the end just like Col Mengistu Hailemariam was saying during the 1980s civil war.
The war with Fano is unique for Abiy and the ruling elite. There is no way they can negotiate like they did with TPLF. TPLF represented 6% of Ethiopia's population. While Amharas amount to over 60% of Ethiopia's population. Bowing to Fano is the end for him and he will not negotiate with them unless forced by a Fano triumph or end of support by his external backers like the UAE. Mengitu Hailemariam lost his battle to the rebels in 1991 after military support by the collapsing USSR was ended by Mikael Gorbachev.
The collateral damage is the civilian Amhara population trapped in the crossfire. Unless a breakthrough by one of the forces happens, this war will continue to drain Ethiopian lives and resources.