Amhara Fano rebels in Ethiopia have officially split in to three groups making efforts to end the civil war hard.
A year after battling the government of Prime minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Amhara Fano forces have officially split into three factions. The division halted their planned summer attacks and dramatically increased their casualties.
A source based in the Shoa province close to the capital Addis Ababa said a few weeks of recent fighting caused more human causality for the rebels than the entire year when there was some kind of loose coalition between the armed groups.
More than half of the rebels recently formed a political and military organization called Amhara Fano People's Organization (AFPO) chaired by Eskinder Nega, a former journalist and long time political prisoner. The group has strong base in Gondar, Shoa and parts of Wollo and Gojjam provinces. But the remaining rebels have either declared war on the group or have not taken sides.
A powerful faction in Gojjam led by warlord Zemene Kassie declared war on a group called Gojjam command, an AFPO allied fighting force, in an attempt to remove any AFPO presence from Gojjam. That incursion led to massive causalities for both especially for AFPO allied groups.
Another group active in northern parts of the Wollo province called East Amhara Fano commanded by Mire Wodajo also declared war on AFPO. Several military commanders affiliated with AFPO have either been killed or kidnapped. These two groups have reportedly been linked with ex-Ethiopia FM and Abiy ally Gedu Andargachew.
Gedu left Ethiopia in unknown circumstances in 2024 after Abiy removed him from state secretary position. He had been a senior leader of ANDM (the Amhara bloc of TPLF's EPRDF coalition) for over 30 years. He made a deal with Abiy who was leader of the Oromo wing OPDO in 2018 to remove TPLF from Ethiopia's center and share power.
Abiy and Gedu were also allies during the two years Ethiopian civil war fighting the TPLF forces who marched within 100kms of the capital Addis Ababa from there base in Tigray. When Abiy ended the war after TPLF recognized him as leader of Ethiopia in 2022, he reportedly denied Gedu's Amhara camp from sharing power which led to a fall out between the two.
Gedu recently came out as Fano by writing a long letter to Ethiopians from his exile in USA. He has also been meeting senior US state department officials on Ethiopia's current situation.
AFPO openly declared its fighting for a fundamental change in Ethiopia. In an interview with BBC Africa, its chairman Eskinder Nega said they are fighting to end what he called "Amhara Genocide" but their political agenda includes constitutional reforms the guarantees the rights of Amharas living in Ethiopia's ten ethnic regions under the ethnic federalism arrangement.
On the other side Gedu's Fanos are fighting on a sense of betrayal by Abiy for their service in the Tigray war. They have no issues with Ethiopia's current ethnic arrangement. Their plan is to restore the pre-Abiy order and gain power in the Amhara region. Gedu's group have not yet officially formed their own umbrella organization. Their immediate plan is to weaken AFPO and stop it from taking roots in their areas.
Due to their infighting, the rebels missed an the rainy season which benefited them last year when they swept the entire region from Abiy government forces. Regime forces find it hard to move heavy weaponry during the rainy season.
Some say the division is a blessing as it clears positions before the rebels make any serious engagement with the government and the public will also be aware of who is who. But the biggest losers are the Amhara civilian population who are trapped in the cross-fire.
Neither side seems to finish the war decisively any time soon. In areas where there is no government control, the rebel infighting is leading to more civilian suffering.
Desperate Fanos who are not politically savvy and confused by the ongoing political grouping are either giving up their arms or have turned into armed mafias looting and kidnapping civilians.