The last five years were difficult for the veteran politician and academic as his party lost influence over their social base and the country's general politics. But recent success at education department may help him regain it.
Berhanu Nega once again proved his credentials and exposed the rotten education system TPLF imposed on Ethiopia for decades (PP's Rouge element want to maintain). This is perhaps the first time since the fall of TPLF, Berhanu Nega became a news maker for good or bad.
A strictly controlled college entrance national exam by his federal education department shows only 3% of a million students scored above 50%. In the past, all the tribal enclaves (legally known as regional states) take the exam from the federal department and give the answers to their students and then brag about their tribal enclaves being well educated and producing brilliant students. That score-cheating feeds their primitive narrative that this tribe is better that tribe.
The last five years were difficult for the veteran politician and academic as his party lost influence both over his own social base and the country's direction. Joining PP's "new" regime as education secretary further distanced him from his base who boycotted the 'election' held in the middle of TPLF's war in 2021.
What's Berhanu's relationship with Abiy Ahmed's regime?
To many people's surprise, Berhanu Nega's relationship with PP is the same as his relationship with TPLF. The difference is PP (Abiy) is trying to neutralize Berhanu's political influence with soft power unlike TPLF who sentenced him to death.
Meles Zenawi's TPLF and Abiy Ahmed's PP see Berhanu and his colleagues as enemies. Meles tried everything in his power to get rid of Berhanu and Andargachew Tsige. He knew the only well-organized group from the other aisle (pro-democracy camp) was their group. Abiy Ahmed and PP share TPLF's views but they don’t want to go the failed way to get rid of Berhanu and co. So, they’re using soft power to politically-neutralize Berhau and they seem to have succeeded so far.
The propaganda against Berhanu’s group as PP surrogates in the last five years was conducted behind the scenes by PP’s deep state. The Amhara PP sponsored the “Berhanu is anti-Amhara” campaign while the Oromo-PP attacked him as remnant of Imperial Ethiopia (YeQedmo Sireat Asimelash). It doesn’t seem to add up for those who don’t read between the lines but even Eskinder Nega’s movement in Addis Ababa was promoted by PP to create divide between all PP’s ideological opponents. It succeeded. People boycotted the 2021 elections in despair and shockingly all the parliament and municipality seats were “taken” by PP in Addis Ababa which was and still is allergic to PP (TPLF) divisive tribal politics.
Before the elections, in a training given to his cadres, Abiy promised to debate Berhanu Nega about social democracy in the “upcoming elections”. He lied, instead he sent a Toung-impaired young man who Abiy assigned as head of the state broadcaster EBC to debate Berhanu Nega. Lacking any ideological coherence throughout the “debate”, the young man was pulling from TPLF’s playbook attacking Berhanu and his group as reactionaries working to reverse the “gains” of the imaginary “Nations and nationalities” under TPLF’s 30 years rule. For PP, the divide and conquer worked.
Abiy doesn’t want to hurt Berhanu and co as long as they remain politically irrelevant. He will use their professional skills for his own legitimacy the same way Emperors do. As it seems the current fight for power in Ethiopia is between PP and his own factions. PP claims to be moderate fascist over their rivals (Amhara-Shane and Oromo-Shane or even TPLF). The fact is a fascist is a fascist. No better no worse!
Berhanu Nega and co understand all these political games. They weren’t fooled. Not coming out aggressively against PP & Abiy in the last five years was a wise decision during chaos and violence that took the lives of over a million Ethiopians. They didn't want to be catalysts for state collapse.
"Andargachew emotionally explained the suffering of the poor, the spreading violence and deadly conflict between PP’s various factions and the naivete of the PM (Abiy) in the face of all these. As a member of Abiy’s cabinet, Berhanu could not say this in public, but he shares it."
Armed violence and hate have been the political languages of the country since 2017. Most of the ethno-fascist groups born out of the ashes of EPRDF have guns and use inter-communal hate to wage their war for power. Berhanu has neither. The only option was to stay quiet or give Abiy Ahmed the benefit of the doubt. Abiy promised to unite the nation, reform the economy and the security apparatus. Despite his naivete and unpredictability, there was no choice other than Abiy Ahmed’s regime to stop the collapse of Ethiopia. Not just Berhanu, Ethiopia’s silent majority stood by the government during the chaos. During war, you take such decisions.
In an interview held in Sept 2022 with ESAT TV, months before the TPLF was militarily defeated, Berhanu Nega’s longtime ally and personal friend Andargachew Tsige spoke bitterly about the current situation PP and Abiy led Ethiopia to. Andargachew successfully predicted the total annihilation of TPLF by Ethiopia’s army, but he said PP and Abiy are increasingly showing stubbornness to resolve the nation’s deeply rooted problems and want to preserve the status quo which is replacing TPLF by PP in a lipstick. In that interview, Andargachew emotionally explained the suffering of the poor, the spreading violence and deadly conflict between PP’s various factions and the naivete of the PM (Abiy) in the face of all these. As a member of Abiy’s cabinet, Berhanu could not say this in public, but he shares it.
How long will Abiy and Berhanu stay around each other?
From Berhanu’s point of view, keeping his post as education secretary has two reasons at least for now. One is he strongly believes the country’s political and social problems arise from a generational crisis. The current generation is a product of TPLF(PP)’s education system. So, the seeds for a national reform are not there on the ground as most young folks are not educated enough to understand and analyze the country’s problems. These morons have simply been drafted into extremist groups because they lack basic intelligence to understand themselves and their environment. As long as Abiy allows him to do his job, Berhanu wants to help his country in that front which is understandable and commendable.
The second reason is Berhanu has lost his political market value for the reasons mentioned above. Until he regains that legitimacy among the polity, it's better to try to reform PP from within. It seems Berhanu still has some hope in PP at least until the so-called national dialogue is held and produces something like constitutional amendment. But this might backfire and Berahnu might end up like those diaspora returnees who trusted Mengistu Hailemariam in the bloody revolution of the mid 70s to only pay a price for the rise of Mengistu and his savage dictatorship. Abiy and his PP inner circle are increasingly showing signs of what Mengistu & his allies were doing then.
For Abiy, keeping Berhanu and some others like Deacon Daniel Kibret under his watch for some time helps him neutralize potential enemies. Through Berhanu, he has effectively divided and conquered the educated urban elites who push for democratic and economic reform. Through Daniel Kibret, Abiy keeps an eye on the country’s Orthodox Christian majority who were long believed to have been power brokers until the 1974 communist revolution and are disproportionally victimized by the changes that took effect since then.
As Abiy wins over his power rivals like the TPLF, he slowly ditches folks like Berhanu and Daniel Kibret. This is evident by recent decisions or directives both Daniel and Berhanu received from Abiy regarding the national exam scores and the attempted coup against the Orthodox church holy synod. Abiy told Berhanu to send over 100,000 students who scored below 50% to universities despite failing to qualify. Daniel Kibret was also instructed not to negatively comment on those who attempted to overthrow the patriarch and form an Oromo synod. We hope to publish more on Daniel Kibret in future pieces.
Conclusion
Despite the circumstances, Berhanu Nega has served his country as best as he can. He never has had bad intentions in his actions, but times change so do people. The generation or the social base for his type of politics in Ethiopia has diminished. Berhanu himself is tired after 50 years in politics. His age and health status to actively engage in such a dangerous political climate might not be ideal. We will see what the next six to ten months bring. If TPLF is defeated and the pressure from western powers is eased, I don’t see any need for sympathizing PP and the prime minister any longer.
The PM has no political agenda or goal. His goal is to remain in power as long as possible. He made this clear in so many of his speeches. He goes with whoever has power on the ground. If the pro-democracy camp is stronger, he goes with them, if the ethno-fascists threaten his power, he pleases them and pretends to protect them from the camp. He's only driven by personal ego.
If Berhanu believes working within the PP regime helps his pro-democracy base, it’s up to him but the reality is PP’s officials he’s trying to change from inside wouldn’t score any better if they sit for his exams. As his own friend, Andargachew Tsige, said PP officials with purchased PhDs and post-graduate degrees are stubborn at best and the new Weyyanes at worst.
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