The Abiy-TPLF reunion gives the fano armed movement a much-needed steam. But the group is far from making an impact in the anti-Abiy movement. They need a unified leadership and political program that attracts the silent majority exhausted with Abiy Ahmed's medieval ruling.
A few days after signing the reunion agreement with TPLF in Pretoria, Abiy Ahmed and his deputy traveled to Konso zone in southern Ethiopia. Speaking to residents there, Abiy dropped a bombshell saying the two major threats for his power now are Amhara-shene and Oromo-shene.
TPLF was no longer a threat despite being fully armed and in control of at least 40% of Tigray. That's the first time Ethiopians heard the word Amhara-shene which Abiy coined to recognize the rising danger paused by Fano armed movement in "Amhara" region. He didn't directly say fano as that would offend large swaths of the Ethiopian society but everyone knew he was talking about the Fanos.
Who are the Fano militias?
Historically, the fanos were anti-fascist hit and run militias who fought Mussolini's army in unorganized manner during WWII in Ethiopia. The guerrilla fighters came from all corners of the Ethiopian society not a particular tribe. In the mid 1970s, the young communists who toppled the monarchy and later waged a bloody power struggle against Mengistu Hailemariam called themselves Fano.
But the word slowly left the public scene in the 80s and 90s as rebels from Tigray & Eritrea provinces took the military and political upper hand on Ethiopia's central government. Then in the 1998-2000 Ethio-Eritrea war, the fanos remerged. After failing to cope with the advancing Eritrean army, TPLF leader Meles Zenawi spread fano campaigns on national TV and radio to recruit young Ethiopians into its army under General Tsadikan.
The Amharanization of Fano
Under PP's TPLF-inspired "amharanization of everything Ethiopia" policy, the fanos are now just an Amhara militant group like the Ethiopian flag, the Orthodox Church and other institutions developed by all Ethiopians for centuries.
Today's fano movement started in the mid 2010s. Armed men started attacking government positions in Gondar province with the support of Eritrea based G7 rebels. Fighters under a man known by the nick name Gobe became popular in the area which forced the TPLF regime to wage an aggressive military campaign which saw the killing of the leader Gobe.
The fanos contributed to the collapse of the TPLF in 2018. Abiy Ahmed's PP who replaced TPLF attempted to co-opt the group and use them in the war against TPLF. Many fanos joined Amhara Special Force (ARSF), the paramilitary wing of PP's Amhara ruling bloc. Thousands of fanos fought TPLF on the side of the Ethiopian army in the first phase of the war which saw TPLF ousted from its power base in Mekele, Tigray.
Due to the lack of disciplined chain of command, the fanos had reportedly committed brutality against TPLF supporters in the region. The US government mentioned this in its yearly human rights report read out by secretary of state Anthony Blinken in March 2023.
In the second phase of the war, the fanos played a huge role in pushing back TPLF in Gondar when the group attempted to capture the province in its summer 2021 offensive. Especially in the battle for the towns of Debre Tabor and Debarq in western Gondar, the fanos paid heavy sacrifices and forced TPLF to change its mind. The Tigrey rebel group abandoned its push for Gondar and matched south to Addis Ababa through the Wollo province.
In the third phase of the war, the TPLF rebels commander general Tadese Worede admitted the role of fanos in the Ethiopian army's offensive. He said the southern front was led by Amhara fanos. The southern front mean Tigray-Wollo border, Raya. The rebel leader also announced his forces would release fano POWs right away without any punishment to separate them from the Ethiopian army.
The Raya district is still patrolled by Amhara fanos. The area was annexed and incorporated into Tigray region by TPLF in the early 1990s. Before 1992, it was part of Wollo province. Based on that, the fanos claim it should be under the current Amhara region.
Divorce with Abiy
Despite the alliance with Abiy Ahmed against a common enemy, the fanos always have had a problem with the prime minister. Since day one of his regime, Abiy Ahmed commissioned the killing of thousands of amharic speakers and other minorities in Wollega, Arsi, Northern Shoa, and Benishangul Gumuz regions.
Many also blame Abiy for the high-profile assassinations in Amhara region in june 2019. Until he settled his issue with TPLF, Abiy cooled down the Fano uprising by pointing figure at TPLF for all the killings in the country. On some occasions also, he blamed the fano fighters for stealing weapons from the Ethiopian army.
Following the subsequent events of the Pretoria deal, the fanos fully divorced Abiy and started acting on their own. A division of fano reportedly crossed the border from the blue Nile province of Gojjam into the Oromo province to fight the OLA (Oromo shene) in Wollega.The fanos justified their move by citing the death toll and destruction against the Amhara population in Wollega and Abiy Ahmed's complacence.
Over a million ethnic Amharas have been displaced from western Ethiopia and thousands massacred in the last four years. Abiy Ahmed's Oromo PP called their move an illegal territorial expansion. A video circulating in Ethiopian internet showing dead OLA-shene soldiers convinced many Ethiopians that the fanos have become a serious deal in the country's political landscape. Some called it brutality.
Who is the Fano leader?
There is no one who came out as a fano leader. The fighters are also divided in all the four provinces of the Amhara region, Gondar, Gojjam, Shoa and Wollo. Those who crossed to Wollega to fight OLA shene were reportedly Gojjam fanos because Gojjam and Wollega share a large border.
They record training sessions and political messages from their territory that are released on social media platforms like Facebook and tiktok.
Observers say the fanos have no organized leadership and are led by provincial war lords in the four provinces mentioned. Some say renowned journalist turned politician eskinder nega is the leader of fanos.
After months of disappearance, Esikinder was recently captured in Bure, a small town on the border between Wollega and Gojjam where the bodies of dead OLA-Shene militants were shown in an exhibiion. He was taken to custody in Bahirdar but later released in unknown circumstances. Eskinder's situation proved Abiy Ahmed has lost power on the Amhara region and the fanos are getting more powerful.
Another speculation is US-based former army colonel Dawit Woldegiorgis is the group's ideological father. The exiled veteran served as deputy foreign minister and governor of Eritrea during the Dergue in the late 1970s and early 80s. He later fell out with Mengistu Hailemariam and attempted an unsuccessful but bloody coup against his former comrade in 1989. The guy is educated in international law and military science.
The colonel also served in multiple international organizations like UN. He reportedly has ties with Eritrea's leader Isayas Afeworki who can militarily help the group. Abiy Ahmed's supporters are already claiming Eritrea is training fano fighters as insurance policy in case Abiy Ahmed invades Eritrea after his Pretoria reunion agreement with TPLF.
The colonel recently spoke about arming fanos in bulk and introducing the group with the international community. He also said fano fighters have eased the killings in Wollega recently after they crossed into the province from their base in Gojjam. If the ex-fighter pilot had all these military and financial secrets about the group, observers say he must be one of the leaders.
What do they need to make an impact?
The fanos need three things to threaten Abiy for power. First they need to win the support of the Ethiopian people. Ethiopians want to know if the fanos are for the expansion of the Amhara region or the dissolution of the ethnofacsist regime. And for that they must have a leader who can articulate their political goals and convince other Ethiopians.
Dawit Woldegiorigis has said he wants to see the dissolution of what he called a "primitive" political system based on ethnic identity in Ethiopia. Fano affiliate movements reportedly operate in Addis Abaa and Gurage. Forming alliances with other groups is a must if the fanos are serious about making an impact.
Secondly, the fano movement needs military backing from Eritrea's government. President Isayas Afeworki has a reason to support them in case the newly reunited TPLF & Abiy invade his country with a green light from the US government.
Abiy Ahmed's leniency towards TPLF who is still armed and in control of major power centers in Tigray is not a welcome news. His government also withdrew its opposition to a US backed UN war crimes investigation. Based on these facts, some suggest Abiy may have made a deal with US government to throw Eritrea and Fano under the bus for alleged crimes commited in the northern Ethiopia civil war.
Now Gondar and Eritrea share a border after Wolkaite was recovered from TPLF occupation in 2020 unless Abiy declares war on the Amhara by handing over the corridor to TPLF.
Thirdly, fanos need to do some name-cleaning with the US government. The Biden administration clearly took side for TPLF and blamed the Ethiopian army, the Eritrean army and fanos for war crimes and ethnic cleansing. US based international media outlets always echoed TPLF propaganda against Amhara forces.
Hiring propagandists and lobbiysts in the western world is more important than rallies in Washington DC and Twitter campaigns to appear as a legitmate force in the eyes of the international community.
The TPLF-Abiy reunion and the events that followed the Pretoria deal have given fano a much-needed steam. Millions of Ethiopians are dismayed by this horrific reality. Abiy Ahmed has the blood of over a million Ethiopians killed in the war against TPLF and genocide-like ethnic killings across the country. The fanos can use this rage for their advantage if they are serious about a change at the center of Ethiopia.