Far-right Oromo militants have ties with a rogue element within the ruling Prosperity Party.
This paper was presented at a recent webinar on the conflict in Ethiopian western province. The speaker started by defining what today's Oromoya region is.
What is the Oromia region?
The Oromia region was created by the late dictator Melles Zenawi and his militant group the TPLF between 1991 and 1994 following the overthrow of the communist government. Melles and his militant group the TPLF created the region by annexing land from and the forced dissolution of several autonomous states namely Addis Ababa. Shoa. Jimma. Wolleggaa. illubabur. Arusi. Harargay. and Baalley.
The following map shows the old provinces and jurisdictions.
Melles named the region after the Oromo tribe and wrote a law for the region that says only the Oromo tribe has ownership of this vast land over so many other tribes who previously inhabited the area. Melles did not do that because he had love for the Oromo tribe and hate for others but because according to his calculation the only way, he could ever be the lifetime emperor of Ethiopia was by creating a scarecrow called Oromia at the heart of the Ethiopian state and the Ethiopian people will always bow for him in fear of the possible disintegration of their country.
His calculation was right. Emperor Melles ruled Ethiopia until his death 2012. But after his death, the TPLF militant group lost control over this vast region they created. Following growing unrest in the region, the TPLF decided to dismantle its own anaconda. But it was too little too late. The unrest in the region led to the collapse of the TPLF regime and in 2018 a man from the Oromo tribe came to power. His name is Abiy Ahmed Ali.
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| The late Meles Zenawi in the early 1990s |
When did the war start?
2018
Who are the actors?
Abiy Ahmed was born in Jimma. Jimma is a moderate Muslim sultanate and annexed by TPLF into the newly created Oromia region. Abiy quickly got the support of the majority of Ethiopians including his own Oromos.
But the collapse of the TPLF kleptocracy means there was no one to properly equipped and armed to rule this vast area.
Abiy did not have enough troops. Meanwhile the TPLF was building a new military in the northern Tigray state to oust Abiy and restore their throne. Abiy was caught up in multiple fronts. He couldn’t quickly respond because he didn’t have enough troops and intelligence apparatus.
Between 2018 and 2020, thousands of civilians were massacred in multiple areas of the region by armed groups with multiple backers. The crimes mount to a genocide against non Oromos and moderate Oromos in the region.
Several militant groups were created in the region including Islamist fundamentalists in Arusi, Bale and Hararghe zones But one group stood out with more power. This group is the Wellegga zone-based OLA Shenaey. OLA Shenaey was formed in 2018 by TPLF intelligence officers by merging a breakaway group from the former militant group OLF and ex-officers of the Ethiopian army.
When the TPLF realized it lost power in 2018, it dissolved the so-called Ethiopian army and gave out the military uniforms and equipment to the newly formed OLA-Shene group. The group’s hit and run military was trained by the experienced TPLF and its English speaking Wellaga scholars helped it get international media attention.
The TPLF waged a proxy war against Abiy Ahmed for two years until 2020 through this Wellega zone group and Islamists in Arusi and Bale. Despite the killing of thousands of civilians, the TPLF failed to unseat Abiy through proxy.
"Ethiopia has nothing lose after five years of unseen bloodshed and economic pain."
Finally in November 2020, the TPLF launched a full-scale invasion of Ethiopia by attacking the northern command and an official merger with OLA shene. The Islamist groups failed to materialize in TPLF’s war coalition due to their disagreement with TPLF’s anti-Islam views.
After two years of horrific war, the TPLF again failed to defeat Abiy Ahmed in a conventional war. Abiy Ahmed’s new army was superior both in military skills and support from the Ethiopian public.
In Nov 2022 exactly two years after their futile war and the complete destruction of their power base, the TPLF gave up the war with Abiy and agreed to disarm but did not officially dissolve the military axis they created in Oromia region.
The newly established Ethiopian army still resides in the Tigray province until the TPLF fully disarms and using this opportunity, the desperate militants, fascist groups in the region started a rampant killing campaign following the signing of TPLF’s surrender agreement.
TPLF may not have a direct control like it did in the past over these groups but still the military pact signed is not dissolved. The militant groups have taken corners in the regional state’s ethnic militia group called the Oromo special force. They use it as a cover under the everything Oromia umbrella.
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| Far-right Oromos use Christmas colors in their parties |
Abiy Ahmed’s army is powerful and may not find it hard to quell these groups, but the fear is Abiy Ahmed’s intelligence is so weak and he may not have the resolve to be ruthless against his Oromo siblings. As long as they don’t threaten his seat like TPLF did, he may just play the firefighter role and keep the country in turmoil as long as possible.
Abiy may have taken lesson from Somalia leaders who only control the capital Mogadishu and call themselves presidents and prime ministers of Somalia.
He Should act before too late. He must dismantle all ethnic militias funded by the state and their respective power bases both in the Oromia and Amhariya regions. The country has nothing to lose, it already lost a lot in the last five years.